World Bank Projects India's Poverty Rate to Drop to 12.1% by 2028

The World Bank reported that poverty in India, measured at a threshold of $4.2 a day, is expected to decrease from 14.2% in 2026 to 12.1% by 2028, according to its latest Poverty & Equity brief.

According to the report, the share of the population living below $4.2 a day fell from 57.7% in 2011 to 16.1% in 2023, lifting an estimated 496 million people out of poverty. Additionally, extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $3 a day, declined from 27.1% to 2.6% over the same period.

Drivers of Poverty Reduction

• Strong consumption growth
• Rising employment, particularly among women
• Expanded social transfers, including food subsidies

Economic Challenges and Labor Market Trends

The World Bank noted that poverty has become more concentrated among households with lower education, fewer assets, limited access to stable employment, and higher dependency ratios. Wage disparities also persist, with median earnings among the top 10% of workers approximately 13 times those of the bottom 10% in 2023.

Between 2017 and 2023, employment reportedly increased by about 134 million people, driven largely by rural women entering paid work. While labor force participation remained stable between Q1 FY 2026 and Q1 FY 2027, youth unemployment rose from 14.6% to 15.9% during the same timeframe, particularly among rural young women.

Government Response

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman acknowledged the findings on social media, stating that the report highlights India's progress in rapid poverty reduction driven by sustained policy efforts under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.