As Crypto and Prediction Markets Expand, Their Regulator Shrinks

As cryptocurrency and prediction markets expand significantly, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) faces substantial staff reductions and a sharp drop in enforcement actions. According to data and agency reports, staffing levels and enforcement cases have decreased amid shifting policy approaches under the Trump administration.

Staff Reductions and Enforcement Drops

• Staff Levels: By the end of 2025, the CFTC had 21% fewer staff members compared to the previous 10-year average, with a 22% drop between January 2024 and January 2025 alone.
• Enforcement Actions: Agency reports indicate that enforcement actions fell by nearly 80% in 2025 relative to the prior decade's annual average.
• Policy Shifts: Former enforcement lawyers noted that cases involving crypto firms and prediction markets were scaled back or closed following administrative changes after the 2024 election.

Former agency attorneys reported that the staffing shortages impacted various investigations, including foreign exchange fraud cases. Former acting chair Caroline Pham noted that crypto-related cases were closed during her tenure, while current Chairman Michael Selig has publicly defended the agency's shift away from regulation through enforcement, stating during an August White House event that "the era of political lawfare... is over."

Congressional Scrutiny and Future Outlook

Following a request from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) is slated to initiate an investigation into the CFTC's workforce reductions in December. Meanwhile, the CFTC stated it is on track to hire approximately 100 employees in mission-critical areas by the end of 2026 to help manage expanding responsibilities, even as applications for new prediction markets continue to accumulate.

Readers can verify regulatory announcements and reports directly through official U.S. government portals and the CFTC's published releases.