US tech subsea cables face heightened Pacific sabotage risks, report warns

A recent research report published in September 2026 by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission highlights growing concerns over deep-sea sabotage risks facing trans-Pacific subsea cables, with projects owned by US technology companies such as Google and Meta among those identified as highly vulnerable. The report was contracted to the London-based think tank China Strategic Risks Institute and evaluated risks using a newly created index.

While most damage to internet backbone cables historically stems from accidental events such as bottom-trawling fishing nets, anchor dragging, storms, and undersea landslides, international tensions have driven increased scrutiny toward suspicious cable-cutting incidents. Analysts have pointed to gray-zone tactics by nations like China and Russia that fall short of direct military confrontation.

Vulnerability Index and High-Risk Regions

The Trans-Pacific Cable Gray Zone Vulnerability Index maps routes and ranks cables based on risk factors including water depth, nearby shipping traffic, ownership, territorial claims, and whether connections run to Taiwan. According to the index, risks are particularly elevated around Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines due to shallow waters, heavy shipping, and geopolitical factors.

Among the top-ranked projects still under development are:

• TPU project: Owned by Google.
• ORCA cable: Owned by Meta.
• E2A cable: Co-owned by Verizon alongside firms in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Potential Impacts of Disruptions

The report warns that severe disruption to even a single trans-Pacific cable could overwhelm available direct capacity, forcing internet traffic onto slower, less direct routes. A broader crisis affecting multiple cables could severely reduce network headroom, impacting cloud services, financial trading, and international communications.

Vessel Activity and Regional Context

A separate October 2026 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that China-flagged research vessels spent unusual amounts of time performing survey-like tracks near subsea cables. Additionally, past incidents have involved commercial vessels damaging regional infrastructure, such as a 2025 case where a Taiwanese court convicted a ship captain after an anchor-dragging incident damaged a local cable.

Similar concerns have emerged globally, with investigations into cable and pipeline damage in European waters involving vessels linked to Russia and China, alongside reports of naval confrontations in Arctic waters.

Practical Implications and Verification

Stakeholders and researchers verify these findings by reviewing primary publications from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, CSIS reports, and official maritime tracking data. While direct risks to individual networks remain a subject of ongoing analysis, network operators continue to evaluate resilience strategies to mitigate potential connectivity bottlenecks.